If there is one thing that I have learned during my time playing fantasy football, it’s that you should never second-guess yourself.
My brother Kevin is also an avid fantasy football player (though he is much better at fantasy basketball). We have been in a league together for six years now, and throughout that time he has been known to over think things and cause himself to lose. So much so, that the league has coined the term “Kev yourself,” meaning to overthink decisions based on your starting roster.
Last week, my brother and I played each other in this league. He had two options at quarterback: Andy Dalton or Tom Brady. Between Thursday and Sunday morning, I began to notice that he kept switching between the two, trying to figure out who he should start.
At first, he thought to start Tom Brady. And why not? Brady had a pretty big game the weekend before, and was looking like the Tom Brady of old. On Thursday, it was announced that Brady had been seen walking around New England’s practice facilities in a walking boot due to a sprained ankle. The next day, my brother put in Andy Dalton as the starter.
When Sunday morning came, Brady was in as his starting fantasy quarterback. Before the morning games came on however, my brother made a change to Dalton, a decision that would later prove to be costly.
That day, my brother watched as Tom Brady threw touchdown after touchdown, ending with 43 fantasy points all while on his bench. Dalton’s day wasn’t bad however, putting up a modest 23 points.
At the end of the day, I won the match up 149-130. If he had gone with his gut and started Brady, the 20-point scoring differential between he and Dalton would have given my brother a one-point victory.
In the ensuing text message group chats between the people in the fantasy league, my brother began throwing around excuse after excuse starting with “if I” and “but I.” It has begun to be something that is expected week in and week out after he loses, and has essentially become his shtick.
As I wrap up my story, I implore you, when it comes to fantasy sports, remember two things: don’t “Kev yourself,” always go with your gut; and always start your studs. Because it sucks to lose knowing what could have been.
Start ‘Em: Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins (Washington): Yes he’s played terrible, but that’s only in real life. This is fantasy, where his terrible performance somehow equates to great numbers. In four of five games this season, Cousins has put up 18, 27, 19 and 16 (standard formatting). His gun slinging passing style has allowed him to average 314.2 yards per game and 2 TDs. He’s going up a Tennessee defense that just allowed Blake Bortles 336 passing yards.
Russell Wilson (Seattle): You remember that horrendous game he just had last week against the Dallas defense? Well that’s not going to happen against a St. Louis defense that just allowed Colin Kaepernick 343 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Cam Newton (Carolina): Look who’s back to being fantasy relevant again. Welcome back healthy Cam Newton. We missed you. Carolina decided that since they have no healthy running backs they’d let Newton carry the load. He had 17 carries for 107 rushing yards against the Cincinnati front seven and that’s just what he did on the ground. He’s playing Green Bay this week, so don’t expect crazy stats like last week, but he should do well against a defense that has struggled against top quarterbacks.
Other QB’s: He probably won’t throw 5 TDs again this week, but Joe Flacco should have a good game in a possible shootout with Atlanta. Brian Hoyer gets to play against the leagues practice squad this week. Er uhh. Jacksonville. Carson Palmer gets to play against a Raiders team that is eighth in yards per attempt for quarterbacks. Sling away, Palmer. Sling away.
Sit ‘Em:
Matthew Stafford (Detroit): In standard formats, the New Orleans defense has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Unfortunately, he’s going to be without Calvin Johnson again. According to ESPN.com, Stafford has averaged .53 fantasy points when throwing to Johnson, and only .27 when throwing to others. The next few weeks are looking grim for Stafford with Johnson expected to be out for two more weeks.
Drew Brees (New Orleans): If you have no one better or no one with a better match up, you’re starting Drew Brees. If you do, you should probably sit him. He’ll most likelybe without his main target, Jimmy Graham, for the next couple of weeks and he’s facing the number 1 defense in the league. He’s had at least 15 fantasy points every week in standard leagues, but he also hasn’t seen 20 fantasy points since week 17 of last season.
Andy Dalton (Cincinnati): Dalton faired well last week without star receiver A.J. Green, but that was against a struggling Carolina secondary. The Indianapolis defense is among top 5 fantasy defenses in fewest points allowed to QBs, and they are number one in fewest points allowed to wide receivers. Expect a big game from the running back Giovanni Bernard, but no one else.
Start ‘Em: Running Backs
Ahmad Bradshaw (Indianapolis): Bradshaw has failed to rush for over 70 yards this season, has yet to get a running touchdown and isn’t considered the starting running back. You’re probably wondering why you should start him. Well, because despite his lack of rushing yards, he has posted over 85 total yards every game this season, has 5 receiving touchdowns, and has out performed Trent Richardson every step of the way. Oh yeah, and Cincinnati’s defense just allowed 107 rushing yards to a quarterback.
Andre Ellington (Arizona): It’s not like you weren’t going to start him, just thought this should be known: Oakland’s defense has allowed 149.8 rushing yards per game. Ellington is on pace for over 1,500 yards from scrimmage this season, and Palmer loves dumping it off to him. Expect a big game from Ellington this week.
Ben Tate (Cleveland): 202 yards and 3 TDs in the past two games since his return from injury. He’s playing Jacksonville. You’re starting him.
Branden Oliver (San Diego): This could be one of the last weeks to get some meaningful points from Oliver since Ryan Matthews is expected to return in the next couple of weeks. In his two weeks of getting significant playing time, he’s has 306 total yards from scrimmage and has had 3 total TDs. Oliver will be going up against a Kansas City Defense that allowed 178 rushing yards last week.
Other RBs: In games where Lamar Miller hasn’t shared carries with Knowshon Moreno, Miller has put up 16, 18 and 16 in standard scoring formats. Justin Forsett has emerged out of the Baltimore backfield and is running away with the starting back duties. Atlanta’s defense is tied for 30th in rushing yards allowed, so Forsett should have fun running through them.
Sit ‘Em:
Frank Gore (San Francisco): I’m sure you saw last week: only 3 fantasy points in standard leagues against a St. Louis defense that allowed over 550 rushing yards in their previous four games. Albeit, they did have to play from behind for during the first half, but Gore carried the ball 16 times and produced a measly 38 yards. Unless San Francisco gets a large lead early, chances are this week’s game versus Denver will be a shootout, which will lead to less carries for Gore.
CJ Spiller (Buffalo): 12, 12, 5, 8, 2 and -1. Those are the fantasy points that Spiller has produced this season. Fred Jackson has out played him all season long and that isn’t likely to cease any time soon.
Mark Ingram (New Orleans): Coming back from injury (hand) against the league’s number one defense, so it’s likely his reps will be limited. It’s best to wait a week or two before starting him.
Start ‘Em: Wide Receivers
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Golden Tate (Detroit): I know his stats weren’t good last week, but his 8.8 targets per game, 6.3 catches per game and 82.5 receiving yards per game make him a must start every week. Even more so now that Calvin Johnson is likely to be out until week 10.
Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina): There is a possibility that he does not play because of a concussion, but if he’s in the starting line up for the Carolina Panthers, then he should be in yours as well. He’s on pace for 147 targets this season. No rookie receiver has had more since Anquan Boldin’s (158) rookie season in 2003.
Other WRs: DeSean Jackson has had 100-plus receiving yards in 3 of 5 games since Kirk Cousins began as he starter. Now that T.Y. Hilton has had is early season big game, it’s time (hopefully) for Reggie Wayne to get his. James Jones has quietly placed himself as a top-25 receiver in PPR formats, and Arizona has allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Sit ‘Em:
Odell Beckham Jr. (New York Giants): In the wake of the Victor Cruz injury, everybody rushed out to grab Beckham Jr. off of the waiver wire. And why shouldn’t they? He’s now a starting wide receiver on a pass heavy team. Don’t rush to start him however. Last week, he had only 2 catches for 28 yards against Philadelphia. This week, he faces a Dallas defense that has allowed the fifth fewest points to opposing wide receivers. He has tremendous upside through the rest of the season, but you should not be starting him this week unless you’re desperate.
Wes Welker (Denver): There are an abundance of passes thrown in Denver with Peyton Manning under center. Unfortunately for Welker, he’s only caught 14 of those passes since he returned to action in week 3. Welker’s numbers deem him droppable, and if there is a player on your waiver wire that has more potential, drop him.
Brian Quick (St. Louis): Seattle’s defense. Richard Sherman. Need I say more?
Start ‘Em: Tight Ends
Greg Olsen (Carolina): Olsen leads Carolina in catches and receiving touchdowns. If Benjamin is out, his role will expand. If Benjamin plays, Olsen is still a top-3 tight end. He’s a must start either way.
Jordan Cameron (Cleveland): Cameron looks as though he is back to being healthy and his 106 yard catching performance last week showed it. He’s back to being a top-10 tight end.
Larry Donnell (New York Giants): One of two things will happen this week: Donnell will prove that his first four weeks weren’t flukes and will have huge game against a Dallas defense who has struggled defending tight ends, or he’ll be just as bad as the past two weeks. I’m going to assume it won’t be the latter. With Victor Cruz sidelined for the rest of the season, Donnell’s targets should receive a healthy bump.
Sit ‘Em:
Jason Witten (Dallas): With Dallas becoming a run first team this season, Jason Witten has had to block more than catch this season. He’s always been a target and catch heavy tight end, but neither have come for him this season.
Picks of the week:
Minnesota over Buffalo
Baltimore over Atlanta
Cleveland over Jacksonville
Carolina over Green Bay (upset of the week)
Chicago over Miami
Indianapolis over Cincinnati
Detroit over New Orleans
Seattle over St. Louis
Washington over Tennessee
San Diego over Kansas City
Dallas over New York Giants
Arizona over Oakland
San Francisco over Denver
Houston over Pittsburgh
